Taking a mental break from putting together a video series on performance management -- up soon, tomorrow me hopes -- I read
Brains vs. Brawn by Geoff Colvin in the Sep 15 issue of dead tree
Fortune (paper still beats digital for reading on the sofa, in the loo or horizontal anywhere).
Fascinating, all about the relative worth per pound of commodities and intellectual capital products. Not so much which is worth more: one expects small, high-ticket items cost more per pound than bulky, sold-by-the-boat-load (literally) commodities. The size of the contrast is still amazing though, that in 2000 hot rolled steel sold for 19 cents a pound and an Intel Pentium III 800mz chip sold for $42,893 on the hoof. Wow.
With all the attention recently paid to commodity prices, trending very high even with a recent softening, Colvin
suspected we were missing a countertrend: the even stronger rise in value of brands, technology, copyrights, and other purely human products.
Not so. Comparing the year 2000 baseline with today's prices, he discovered that "the true commodities, steel and gold, have risen hugely, about 170% each." Yet brain-heavy, intellectual-capital products haven't faired as well, with Viagra up the most at a 150% rise (puns intended). Most don't even come close: the chip test is stark. The far-advanced Core 2 Duo Extreme Edition chip has increased a mere 18%. Huh?
The closer a product is to the dirt from which it came, the more its price has risen, while if it has been upgraded and sweated over by hundreds of Ph.D. engineers, it is lucky just to have help steady. What on earth is happening?
First, obvious to anyone aware of what's happening outside the West, is there has been a huge increase in the amount of brainpower available, that as demand for brainy products have certainly increased, this increase has been dwarfed (snd made possible actually) by the 1000s and 1000s and 1000s of Chinese, Indian and non-OECD country engineers produced yearly. Throw a stone in Shenzen, Hsin Chu or Bangalore and you're likely to hit an engineer, 50:50 one with an advanced degree.
Thus the increase of demand and the increase of brain power--and the low capital needed in areas like brand building--have led to better and better design to meet the challenge of more and more competitors. This has depressed unit costs, or prices anyway.
Not so in commodities. The demand in the past decade for from-the-dirt products has far outstripped the supply. It takes time and money to even get permission for a new mine, let alone the time needed to start up, build the refinery and other infrastructure then ship the iron, copper, coal or gold.
Colvin contends that this is still just a cycle, that big demand/low supply high prices will slowly change, an equilibrium will be reached and prices will stabilize if not fall. Calling it a "once-a-generation" opportunity to cash in from commodities, he ends with the money quoye, that
A smart businessperson can always innovate, create a new brand, build a better prodcut. The game never stands still, but neither does it lead to an inevitable conclusion. That's why I'm still betting on brainpower.
Me too. I live in one of the world's commodity powerhouses, Canada, self-described "hewers of wood and drawers of water." Life is sure good in many parts of Canada, potash from Saskatchewan, oil from Alberta (Oilberta to the rest of Canada), coal and other minerals from BC make for happy budgets. But the writing is on the wall, if we take the time to see it anyway.
Central Canada, Ontario and Quebec, are suffering: our manufacturing heartland, jobs are disappearing and ... no one quite knows. I live in Sooke Harbour, on the west coast of Vancouver Island, a rugged community built on logging and fishing. But there are few logs left, and, by all accounts, fewer fish. It's a beautiful spot, and tourism will help, but B&Bs and diners pay little wages, certainly not enough to replace a logger paycheck.
We, like the rest of Canada, have to shift, from digging in the figurative dirt to innovating in the intellectual marketplace. Like Colville, I think we have no choice but to bet on brainpower.